Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: Enduring Historical Distrust, Escalating Current Tensions, and Uncertain Future Prospects

Why in News

Intense border clashes broke out between Pakistani security forces and Afghan Taliban along the Durand Line in October 2025, starting with Pakistani strikes inside Afghanistan on October 9 and leading to heavy fighting on October 11-12, with significant casualties on both sides, border closures, and a temporary 48-hour ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Saudi Arabia starting October 15, highlighting deep-rooted mutual suspicions and strategic divergences that threaten regional stability.

Key Points

1. Pakistan conducted strikes in Afghanistan's Kabul and Paktika province on October 9, 2025, targeting militant camps linked to groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Fitna al Khwarij, and Daesh, amid accusations of Afghanistan harboring anti-Pakistan elements.
2. In retaliation, Afghan Taliban forces attacked Pakistani border posts on October 11-12, 2025, along a stretch from Chitral in the north to Waziristan in the south, leading to the closure of key crossings like Torkham and Chaman, severely disrupting trade for landlocked Afghanistan.
3. Casualties from the October 11-12 clashes include over 200 Afghan fighters killed as claimed by Pakistan, while Afghanistan reported killing 58 Pakistani soldiers; additional fresh clashes on October 14-15 resulted in at least 6 Pakistani paramilitary deaths and about 20 Taliban fighters killed.
4. Civilian impacts were severe, with 15 civilians killed and over 80 women and children injured in mortar fire near Spin Boldak in Kandahar province, prompting thousands to seek shelter.
5. A 48-hour ceasefire was agreed upon starting at 6 p.m. on October 15, 2025, following interventions by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, though tensions remain high with mutual accusations of unprovoked attacks.
6. The Durand Line, a 2,640-km border established in 1893, remains a core dispute, as Afghanistan views it as a temporary sphere of influence rather than a permanent international boundary, leading to historical opposition like Afghanistan's vote against Pakistan's UN entry in 1947.
7. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing safe havens to TTP militants, who have close ties with Afghan Pashtuns and are blamed for attacks in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.
8. Afghanistan has diversified its external engagements, including ties with India (coinciding with the Afghan foreign minister's visit to New Delhi during the strikes), China for mining investments, and Russia for diplomatic recognition, which Pakistan sees as a betrayal of its historical support.
9. Since 2023, Pakistan has deported millions of Afghan refugees, using migration and border closures as leverage, drawing criticism from the UN Human Rights Council.
10. China has urged both nations to resolve issues through dialogue, expressing concern over escalating tensions, while the clashes signal a potential realignment in relations, with Pakistan's military dominating policy and viewing Afghanistan as a vassal state.

Explained

What is the historical background of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and how did it lead to ongoing distrust?

Origins of the Durand Line: The 2,640-km Durand Line was drawn in 1893 between British India and Afghanistan's Amir Abdul Rehman Khan to define spheres of influence, not as a permanent border, but it divided Pashtun tribes, creating lasting resentment among Afghans who see it as a colonial wound imposed under duress.

Post-Independence Tensions: After Pakistan's creation in 1947, Afghanistan became the only country to oppose its UN membership, demanding the return of Pashtun lands up to the Indus River, leading to the Pashtunistan movement advocating for merging Pakistan's Pashtun areas with Afghanistan.

Key Historical Conflicts: In the 1950s-1960s under Afghan leader Daud Khan, support for Pashtunistan escalated to hostilities in 1961, with Pakistan closing borders, causing shortages in Afghanistan and increasing its reliance on the Soviet Union; similar closures occurred in 1973, but normalization happened by 1976 without Afghanistan accepting the Durand Line.

Pakistan's Role in Afghan Wars: During the Soviet invasion (1979-1989), Pakistan hosted millions of refugees and supported Mujahideen groups; it later backed the Taliban from 1994, helping them capture Kabul in 1996, and provided aid during the US occupation (2001-2021), but Afghans view this as self-serving rather than genuine help.

Refugee and Migration Dynamics: Pakistan used Afghan refugees as strategic assets during conflicts but began mass deportations in 2023, affecting even registered ones, which Afghans resent as coercive tactics, further eroding trust.

What are the main factors contributing to the current tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Border Clashes and Sovereignty Violations: Recent fighting, including Pakistani strikes on October 9, 2025, in Kabul and Paktika, and Afghan retaliation on October 11-12, stems from mutual claims of unprovoked attacks, with Pakistan targeting alleged militant hideouts and Afghanistan defending its territory.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Issue: Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering TTP militants, who share ethnic Pashtun ties and resentment over Pakistan's 2018 merger of Tribal Agencies into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, seen as an assault on Pashtun autonomy by Punjab-dominated Pakistan.

Trade and Connectivity Leverage: Pakistan frequently closes borders like Torkham and Chaman, vital for Afghanistan's imports, as pressure tactics, refusing Indian goods transit and causing economic strain, while Afghanistan seeks alternatives via Iran and Central Asia.

Diverging External Alliances: Afghanistan's growing ties with India, China (for mining), and Russia (for recognition) are viewed by Pakistan as ingratitude, especially since the October 9 strikes coincided with the Afghan foreign minister's India visit, labeled a "serious provocation" by Pakistan.

Civil-Military Imbalance in Pakistan: Pakistan's military Establishment controls Afghan policy, sidelining civilian input, and expects Taliban subservience for past support, while the Taliban asserts independence after defeating superpowers.

Why is the Durand Line a central dispute in Pakistan-Afghanistan ties?

Historical Purpose and Interpretation: As per Afghan scholar Nabi Sahak, the line was meant to separate spheres of influence, not create a fixed border, contrasting Pakistan's view of it as permanent, leading to Afghanistan's refusal to recognize it fully.

Impact on Pashtun Communities: The line splits Pashtun tribes, fostering cross-border sympathies, especially for TTP, and fueling movements like Pashtunistan, which Daud Khan revived in the 1970s, causing diplomatic ruptures.

Modern Protests and Actions: In 2018, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani protested Pakistan's Tribal Agencies merger, seen as erasing Pashtun traditions; recent clashes occur along this line in provinces like Nangarhar, Kandahar, and Waziristan.

Strategic Implications: The dispute enables smuggling, militant movements, and trade disruptions, with border closures used by Pakistan to coerce Afghanistan, exacerbating economic dependencies and security threats.

What role does the Taliban play in the current dynamics of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations?

Rise and Pakistan's Support: Emerging in 1994 with Pakistani aid, the Taliban ruled from 1996-2001 and regained power in 2021 after US withdrawal, defeating opponents with Pakistan's help, but now resist being treated as a vassal.

Ties with TTP and Militants: Afghan Taliban view TTP as kin due to shared Pashtun resentment against Pakistan, denying safe havens but blaming Pakistan's policies for its own militancy issues, including Daesh threats.

Assertions of Independence: Post-2021, the Taliban has diversified diplomacy, engaging India for aid, China for investments, and Russia for legitimacy, rejecting Pakistan's demands to limit such ties, leading to perceptions of betrayal in Islamabad.

Responses to Clashes: Taliban spokespersons like Zabihullah Mujahid have warned of firm retaliation to sovereignty violations, claiming captures of Pakistani posts and emphasizing alternative options if dialogue fails.

How do recent events impact the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan ties?

Potential for Realignment: The October 2025 clashes indicate a shift, with Afghanistan reducing dependence on Pakistan through new alliances, potentially worsening relations if Pakistan continues coercive tactics like deportations and closures.

Regional Security Risks: Escalations could fuel militancy in Pakistan's KP and Balochistan, empower groups like TTP and Daesh, and draw in external powers like China, which calls for dialogue to protect its interests.

Economic and Humanitarian Consequences: Border shutdowns halt trade, worsening Afghanistan's crisis and straining Pakistan's economy; ongoing refugee deportations, criticized internationally, deepen bitterness.

Uncertain Prospects: Without mutual recognition of concerns—Pakistan's security fears and Afghanistan's sovereignty—ties may remain hostile, with brief ceasefires like the October 15 one offering temporary relief but no long-term resolution.

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