Cyclone Montha Gathers Strength: East Coast States Gear Up for Imminent Landfall and Heavy Downpours

Why in News

A deep depression brewing over the southeast Bay of Bengal has intensified into the cyclonic storm Montha, marking the season's first major cyclone to threaten India's east coast. With landfall expected near Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh on the evening of October 28, 2025, states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have issued red alerts, closed schools, suspended fishing operations, and begun evacuations from low-lying areas. This development has triggered widespread preparations amid forecasts of extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 210 mm in 24 hours, strong winds up to 110 kmph, and rough seas, highlighting the urgent need for coastal resilience as the cyclone month unfolds.

Key Points

1. The cyclonic storm Montha, centred about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai as of early October 27, is moving west-northwestwards at 16 kmph and is forecast to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by October 28 morning, with maximum sustained winds of 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph near landfall.
2. Landfall is projected between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam, close to Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh, during the evening/night of October 28, potentially affecting coastal stretches from Visakhapatnam to Nellore with gale-force winds and storm surges.
3. IMD has issued red alerts for heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in seven Andhra Pradesh districts (Kakinada, Konaseema, West Godavari, Krishna, Bapatla, Prakasam, SPSR Nellore) on October 27-28, and for eight southern Odisha districts (Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Gajapati, Ganjam, Kandhamal, Kalahandi) on October 28-29.
4. Over 10,000 people are being evacuated from vulnerable low-lying areas in Andhra Pradesh's coastal districts, with relief camps set up, NDRF and SDRF teams deployed, and satellite phones distributed to counter potential communication breakdowns.
5. Schools and colleges in multiple districts of Andhra Pradesh (e.g., Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, West Godavari) and Odisha have been closed until October 30-31; fishing bans are enforced till October 29, and beaches like Puri and RK Beach in Visakhapatnam are off-limits to prevent drownings.
6. Orange alerts extend to northern Tamil Nadu (including Chennai), Kerala (three districts), coastal Karnataka, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh, with very heavy rainfall (115-210 mm) expected until October 29, alongside rough to very high seas in the Bay of Bengal.
7. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Andhra Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu to review preparations, while Odisha has deployed 128 disaster response teams and cancelled leaves for government staff in affected areas.
8. The infographic map from IMD shows the cyclone's projected path curving from 620 km west of Port Blair on October 25, intensifying near Kakinada by October 28, with fallout zones marked in red for Andhra's coastal belt and orange for Odisha's southern districts, emphasizing a north-northwest trajectory that could shift based on sea surface temperatures.

Explained

What is Cyclone Montha and how does it form?

Cyclones like Montha are massive rotating storm systems powered by warm ocean waters; they start as low-pressure areas where moist air rises, cools, and forms clouds, drawing in more air that spins due to Earth's rotation, creating winds over 74 kmph.

In the Bay of Bengal, post-monsoon cyclones form easily because sea surface temperatures stay above 26.5°C, fueling rapid intensification—Montha evolved from a depression on October 25 to a cyclonic storm by October 27, named by Thailand meaning 'wind' or 'breeze' under the WMO/ESCAP panel's system where countries contribute names alphabetically.

Basic theory: These storms dissipate over land as moisture cuts off, but not before causing floods, surges, and erosion; India's east coast sees 5-6 cyclones yearly, more than the west, due to the bay's shallow, warm waters that allow quick buildup.

What is the projected path and timeline of Cyclone Montha?

The IMD's tracking map illustrates Montha's path starting 620 km west of Port Blair on October 25, moving west-northwest to intensify over the southwest Bay by October 27, reaching severe status near Kakinada for landfall on October 28 evening, with residual heavy rains lingering into October 29 over Odisha and Rayalaseema.

Key visual elements: Red shaded zones highlight high-risk Andhra coastal districts (e.g., Kakinada to Nellore), orange for Odisha's south (Ganjam to Koraput), and yellow for spillover to Tamil Nadu/Kerala; the curved arrow shows a potential northward shift if winds strengthen, with wind speed contours (40-110 kmph) encircling the eye.

Analysis: This path mirrors past cyclones like Hudhud (2014), which hit Visakhapatnam similarly, underscoring the bay's funnel-like geography that funnels storms toward Andhra-Odisha; real-time satellite data (INSAT-3D) helps refine forecasts, reducing error margins to under 100 km.

What are the expected impacts on people, economy, and environment in affected regions?

Human impacts include flooding in low-lying coastal villages, risking lives and displacing thousands—past events like Cyclone Hudhud caused 100+ deaths and ₹21,000 crore damage; Montha could flood crops in Andhra's Krishna delta, affecting rice yields vital for 20% of national output.

Economic toll: Disruptions to fishing (employing 4 million in east coast) and ports like Visakhapatnam (handling 60 million tonnes cargo yearly) could halt trade; tourism in beaches like Puri sees seasonal dips, while power outages from fallen lines exacerbate issues in rural areas.

Environmental angle: Storm surges erode mangroves, key natural barriers that absorb 50-90% wave energy; heavy rains boost soil erosion in deforested Godavari basin, but also recharge groundwater—long-term, frequent cyclones signal climate change, with warmer seas raising intensity by 10-20% per IPCC models.

How are governments and agencies preparing, and what lessons from past cyclones are applied?

Central aid includes NDRF's 16 teams (each 45 personnel) prepositioned in Andhra/Odisha, with Army on standby for rescues; IMD's color-coded alerts (red for highest risk) guide evacuations, targeting 10,000+ from unsafe homes using early warning SMS and apps like 'Meghdoot'.

State actions: Andhra's CM Naidu activated 24/7 control rooms, cleared encroachments in Guntur canals, and shifted pregnant women to hospitals; Odisha's 128 ODRAF teams and flood shelters draw from Phailin (2013) lessons, where timely evacuations saved 1 million lives despite ₹4,500 crore losses.

Broader strategy: India's National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (since 2007) builds cyclone shelters (500+ in Odisha) and Doppler radars for 15-minute warnings; community drills and mangrove restoration cut vulnerabilities by 30%, emphasizing 'zero casualty' goals amid rising cyclone frequency.

What role does the India Meteorological Department (IMD) play in cyclone management?

IMD acts as the nodal agency, using buoys, radars, and satellites to forecast 72-120 hours ahead, issuing bulletins every 3 hours during peaks; for Montha, it hoisted DC-I signals at ports, banning sea ventures till October 29.

Historical evolution: From basic pressure readings in 1875 to AI-enhanced models today, IMD's accuracy has jumped 20% since 2010, enabling 'impact-based forecasting' that prioritizes vulnerable spots like Kakinada's ports over mere tracks.

Additional details: Collaborates with global bodies like WMO for naming (14 countries contribute), and trains locals via 'Aapda Mitra' program; in Montha's case, it warns of 'very severe' potential if shear winds weaken, teaching that early alerts can slash economic losses by 40%.

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