US President Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year pause, the first since 1992, citing alleged tests by rivals like Russia and China. This order, issued during a meeting with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, aims to restore parity but has prompted the Kremlin to vow reciprocal action, heightening fears of a renewed arms race. The move challenges the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) norm and could reshape international non-proliferation efforts, with direct bearings on India's no-first-use policy and regional security dynamics.
What is nuclear weapons testing, and why has it been paused for decades?
Basics of Nuclear Testing: Nuclear testing means exploding atomic devices underground, underwater, or in the air to check weapon designs, explosive power, and safety. It helps countries update old weapons or build new ones, but each test releases radiation that harms people and nature nearby.
Global Pause History: After World War II, the US, Soviet Union, and others did hundreds of tests, causing health issues like cancer in test site communities. In 1963, the Partial Test Ban Treaty stopped above-ground tests to cut fallout. By 1992, the US paused all tests under Bush, leading to the 1996 CTBT that bans all explosions—signed by most nations but not yet approved by big players like the US, India, or Pakistan. This created a voluntary "zero-yield" rule, relying on computers for simulations instead.
Benefits of the Pause: It has prevented over 2,000 tests, reduced global radiation by 90%, and built trust among nuclear states, supporting treaties like the NPT for non-proliferation.
What prompted Trump's decision to resume tests now?
Geopolitical Triggers: Trump linked the order to claims of Russian subcritical tests (non-explosive) and China's silo expansions, saying the US must match to avoid weakness. This fits his "America First" view, amid Ukraine tensions and South China Sea disputes.
US Domestic Factors: The order supports stockpile checks without full blasts via subcritical methods, but full tests need congressional nod under laws like the 1992 Spratt-Furse Act. Vice President JD Vance backed it for verifying ageing US warheads (about 3,700 active).
Timeline and Process: Tests could start in 6-12 months at Nevada's Yucca Flat, involving seismic prep and environmental reviews; costs may hit $1-2 billion yearly, per Arms Control Association estimates.
How are Russia and China reacting, and what does this mean for arms control?
Russia's Response: Spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Trump's claims "unfounded" and said Russia—last testing in 1990—would mirror US moves for balance but prefers talks on New START extensions. This echoes 2018 threats during INF Treaty collapse.
China's Stance: Beijing, with 500 warheads per SIPRI, stressed CTBT adherence and urged US restraint; it views tests as destabilizing Asia, possibly speeding its DF-41 missile program.
Global Arms Control Risks: The CTBT's monitoring network (337 stations) detects secret tests, but US resumption could prompt withdrawals, weakening the NPT regime that India critiques for inequality. It revives Cold War fears, with UN experts warning of a "doomsday clock" tick closer to midnight.
What are the implications for India and South Asia?
India's Nuclear Doctrine: As a non-NPT state, India follows a voluntary CTBT moratorium since 1998 Pokhran-II tests, focusing on no-first-use and minimum deterrence. This US move may validate India's Agni-VI pursuits and SSBN expansions like INS Arighat.
Regional Security Shifts: It could embolden Pakistan's tactical nukes or China's border arsenal, straining India's Quad alliances; PM Modi's US ties under iCET for tech sharing gain urgency.
Economic and Ethical Angles: Tests cost billions India can't spare for welfare; ethically, they risk fallout like 1960s Pacific tests displacing locals—India must push IAEA for equitable disarmament.
How does this fit into broader international frameworks?
Key Institutions Involved: The CTBTO verifies compliance; IAEA inspects fissile materials. UNSC Resolution 1540 curbs proliferation, but US action tests these.
India's Diplomatic Role: With 2021-22 UNSC seat experience, India can advocate FMCT in G20/BRICS, linking to SDGs on peace; it balances Russia ties (S-400) with US pacts.
Future Scenarios: Best case: Revives trilateral talks; worst: Sparks tests by North Korea or Iran, per think tanks like Carnegie Endowment.
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