US President Donald Trump referred to the US and China as the "G-2" ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, signaling a potential shift toward viewing the two nations as equal superpowers for global leadership, which has raised concerns among US allies about weakened commitments in the Indo-Pacific amid ongoing tensions with China.
What is the G-2 Concept and Its Historical Background?
Origin and Proposal: The term G-2 was coined in 2005 by economist C Fred Bergsten in his book on global economics, envisioning the US and China as the two primary engines for world growth, collaborating on issues like exchange rates, energy, and macroeconomic stability to address pressing global challenges.
Evolution During Crises: It gained prominence during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, where US-China cooperation was seen as essential for recovery, with Bergsten advocating it as a supplement to existing institutions like the G-20, IMF, and WTO, not a replacement, to ensure effective international progress.
Past US Administrations' Approach: During the Obama era, there was some alignment with China's Hu Jintao leadership, but the concept never formalized, reflecting a time when China was less assertive and focused on internal modernization rather than global dominance.
How Has China's Global Role Changed Since 2013?
Shift Under Xi Jinping: Since Xi assumed power in 2013, China has moved from a policy of hiding strength and biding time to assertive diplomacy and military expansion, including actions in the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific, marking a departure from its earlier reticent stance.
Assertive Domains: This includes economic initiatives like the Belt and Road, technological advancements, and territorial claims, positioning China as a direct challenger to US-led order, with increased military muscle-flexing that has heightened regional tensions.
Contrast with Past: Previously, China's approach was inward-focused on growth, but now it engages in "wolf warrior" diplomacy, aggressively defending interests, which has led to conflicts with neighbors and prompted counter-alliances like the Quad.
What Was Trump's Approach to China in His First Term?
Framing as Rival: From 2017-2021, Trump administration labeled China a strategic threat to the rules-based global order, initiating trade wars and emphasizing competition in technology, economy, and security to counter its rise.
Revival of Quad: This led to the Quad's reactivation in November 2017 during an ASEAN summit in the Philippines, uniting India, Japan, Australia, and the US to address Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, welcomed by ASEAN nations for renewed US engagement.
Policy Outcomes: Actions included tariffs, export controls on tech, and alliances to diversify supply chains, aiming to reduce dependence on China and maintain US dominance in global affairs.
How Does Trump's Recent G-2 Framing Differ from His Past Policies?
Signaling Parity: By calling the US-China meeting "G-2 convening," Trump indicates acceptance of China as an equal superpower, contrasting his first term's rival framing and suggesting potential cooperation over confrontation.
Context of Meeting: Used before the Xi meeting in South Korea, it implies a reset, possibly influenced by tariff negotiations and global economic pressures, but raises questions about consistency in US foreign policy.
Expert Views: Analysts like Bonnie Glaser note it implies equal weight in positions, while Yun Sun highlights China's shift to aggressive diplomacy, making this framing unexpected and potentially disruptive.
What Are the Potential Impacts on US Allies in the Indo-Pacific?
Concerns for India: Strained US-India ties from 50% tariffs have delayed Trump's Quad visit, with talks of alternatives like replacing India with the Philippines, though India's economic size and regional power make it indispensable.
Anxiety in Japan and Australia: Tokyo and Canberra worry about diminished US commitment against China, fearing the G-2 could sideline multilateral efforts like the Quad, affecting collective security in the South China Sea.
Broader Regional Effects: Allies fear a US softening on China could encourage its expansionism, complicating strategies in disputed areas and prompting exploration of independent alliances amid federal shifts.
How Could This Affect the Quad Grouping and Indo-Pacific Strategy?
Potential Weakening of Quad: The Quad, revived in 2017 to counter China, may lose momentum if US prioritizes G-2, reducing focus on joint exercises, tech sharing, and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.
India's Strategic Position: As a key Quad member, India faces complications in border disputes with China, with less US pressure on Beijing, but opportunities to strengthen ties through G-20 or bilateral deals.
Federal Implications: This framing may undermine US-led rules-based order, encouraging China’s assertiveness and forcing allies to adapt, potentially leading to diversified partnerships beyond US reliance.
What Are the Broader Global Implications of a US-China G-2?
Economic and Security Shifts: It could lead to bilateral deals on trade, climate, and growth, but marginalize other nations, increasing inequalities and weakening multilateral forums like WTO and IMF.
Comparison to Past Resets: Similar to Nixon's 1972 China opening, it might reshape alliances, but in current context, it complicates India's grand strategy amid ongoing US-China competition.
Best-Case for Allies: If Trump-Xi ties sour like Trump-Putin relations, it could restore focus on countering China, benefiting India and the Quad in maintaining Indo-Pacific balance.
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