Farm Subsidies, MSP, PDS & Food Security

Direct-seeded rice is gaining attention among farmers as an alternative to conventional transplanted paddy because it can reduce water and labour use at a time when El Niño conditions are expected to affect the southwest monsoon. The shift is being supported by new herbicide-tolerant rice varieties, but it also raises concerns over weed control, herbicide stewardship, soil suitability, groundwater stress and the long-term sustainability of India’s paddy economy. The uploaded newspaper report highlights this trend from the perspective of farmers facing water and labour shortages. (Indian Express, PIB / IMD)

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led a high-level American delegation to New Delhi (22–24 June 2026) for talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal aimed at concluding an interim India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The visit comes at a decisive moment: the US Supreme Court has struck down the earlier emergency tariffs, the temporary 150-day Section 122 tariffs lapse on 24 July, and a fresh Section 301 tariff architecture is being shaped. This article explains the legal basis of US tariffs, the Supreme Court verdict, India's shrinking goods trade surplus with America, the FDI and rupee pressures, and India's key negotiating concerns.

India’s southwest monsoon has shown weak progress over western India, especially Maharashtra, amid developing El Niño conditions and a large early-season rainfall deficit. IMD’s latest monsoon outlook, rainfall data and extended-range forecasts point to weak cross-equatorial flow, below-normal rainfall risk, heatwave conditions in parts of Maharashtra, and possible implications for kharif sowing, food inflation, water security and disaster preparedness.

The United States Trade Representative (USTR), Jamieson Greer, is set to visit New Delhi on June 23-24, 2026, to give the "final touches" to the framework of the much-awaited India-US trade deal and to push the broader Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). It is the first visit by a US trade chief since negotiations began in early 2025 under the Mission 500 target. The talks come amid a lingering US Section 301 investigation into India's "industrial overcapacity" and a separate forced-labour probe that could trigger fresh tariffs. This article explains the trade deal, the tariff timeline, the working of Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, the BTA roadmap, the key sticking points such as farm market access, and what the deal means for India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole bulletin, has confirmed that El Niño conditions have emerged over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen through the southwest monsoon season. The announcement follows a similar confirmation by the US NOAA and accompanies IMD's revised 2026 monsoon forecast of 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" season. This article explains El Niño, the ENSO cycle, the Niño 3.4 index and the Indian Ocean Dipole, shows how the Walker Circulation links Pacific warming to a weaker Indian monsoon, and assesses what a deficient monsoon means for agriculture, food prices and heatwaves in India.

Urea import prices have fallen sharply in National Fertilizers Ltd’s latest tender after China partially relaxed export restrictions, giving India relief during the kharif season. The issue is important for UPSC because it links fertiliser subsidy, global supply chains, China’s export policy, farm input security, fiscal pressure, soil health and India’s dependence on imported fertilisers.

India's fertiliser subsidy bill for 2026-27 is set to overshoot the Budget Estimate of about Rs 1.71 lakh crore, with the Department of Fertilizers seeking a near-100% hike as the West Asia crisis and the Strait of Hormuz disruption push up the cost of imported urea, DAP and feedstock. State-owned firms have floated fresh import tenders and the government is exploring supplies from Russia. This article explains how India's fertiliser subsidy works, the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) and urea regimes, the DBT mechanism, India's deep import dependence, and the fiscal and policy challenges ahead.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its second-stage long-range forecast on 29 May 2026, lowered its 2026 Southwest Monsoon estimate to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), pushing the season into the "below normal" category amid a developing El Niño. This article explains the monsoon mechanism, the meaning of LPA and IMD's rainfall categories, how El Niño (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) shape Indian rainfall, the impact on agriculture and inflation, and why ample reservoirs and foodgrain buffers offer a silver lining.

Western and Central Europe are in the grip of an extraordinary May heatwave, with the UK and France recording their highest-ever May temperatures and parts of Spain crossing 38°C — temperatures 10 to 15°C above seasonal norms. Driven by a "heat dome" trapping warm air, the event coincides with the rapid emergence of an El Niño phase in the equatorial Pacific, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged as a key reason for cutting its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" category. This article explains the science of heat domes, ENSO, Walker Circulation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, climate whiplash, IMD's heatwave criteria, and what a strong El Niño could mean for India's agriculture, inflation, and food security.

Iran has carried out attacks on multiple energy facilities in the Gulf, hitting a major petrochemical plant in the UAE’s Ruwais area, two units in Bahrain and several facilities in Kuwait. At the same time, Israel launched strikes on southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. These developments mark a dangerous new phase in the ongoing war, directly targeting energy infrastructure and raising fears of even bigger disruptions in global oil and gas supplies.

While many parts of India are struggling with the LPG crisis caused by rising prices and supply issues due to the West Asia conflict, the small village of Ekauni in Chandauli district of Uttar Pradesh remains completely untouched. All 500 residents here cook using piped biogas produced from cow dung in a community plant set up in 2022. The story highlights how a simple, locally managed biogas system can provide reliable and cheap clean cooking fuel to rural families.

Israeli airstrikes on March 7-8, 2026, targeted oil storage facilities in Tehran and Alborz province, causing massive fires that released harmful pollutants into the air. This led to "black rain" falling over Tehran on March 8, a mix of rain and toxic particles that has raised serious health and environmental concerns, with the World Health Organization warning of long-term risks like respiratory issues and ecosystem damage.

After back-to-back good monsoons in 2024 and 2025, India is facing a surplus in key crops like rice, wheat, and soyabean, leading to wholesale prices dropping well below the minimum support prices (MSP). This has reversed the earlier focus on curbing high food inflation that hurt consumers, now putting pressure on farmers with low returns, prompting potential policy changes to support the farm sector.

India's ethanol blending program, aimed at reducing oil imports and supporting farmers, has seen a major shift where grains like maize and rice now contribute more to ethanol production than sugarcane-based sources. This transition, highlighted in recent data for the 2024-25 supply year, is driven by favorable pricing policies and poor sugarcane harvests due to droughts, raising concerns about sustainability, food security, and the sugar industry's future amid the push for 20% blending by 2025-26.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while inaugurating the expansion of Sabar Dairy in Gujarat on October 3, 2025, highlighted that India's dairy sector has grown by 70% over the past 11 years, making it the fastest-growing in the world. This announcement underscores the sector's role in boosting rural incomes and national GDP, amid ongoing initiatives like White Revolution 2.0 and recent GST reductions on dairy products to further accelerate growth.

The Indian government is set to launch the National Camel Mission, a multi-ministerial initiative aimed at halting the drastic 75% decline in the country's camel population since 1977. This comes as part of broader efforts to conserve the "desert icon," support traditional herder communities like the Raika, and tap into economic opportunities such as camel milk production, amid concerns over ecological imbalances in arid regions like Rajasthan and Gujarat.