Geophysical Phenomena & Changing Geography

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026 by ICIMOD has warned that several parts of the HKH region may face below-normal monsoon rainfall, but the risk of climate hazards such as flash floods, landslides, droughts, heat stress and glacial lake outburst floods remains high. The issue is important for UPSC because it links Himalayan ecology, monsoon variability, El Niño, cryosphere change, disaster management, water security and India’s climate adaptation strategy.

A new Indicators of Global Climate Change study has reported that human-induced global warming reached its highest recorded level in 2025, mainly due to continued greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, industry, land-use change and weakening aerosol cooling. The issue is important for UPSC because it connects climate science, Paris Agreement targets, carbon budgets, energy transition, India’s NDCs, climate justice and disaster-risk planning.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and contested amid the 2026 Iran war, energy tankers are increasingly "going dark" — switching off their AIS transponders to cross the chokepoint undetected. Once a tactic of the sanctioned-oil "shadow fleet", dark transits now make up the majority of crossings, raising collision and enforcement risks. This article explains the geography and importance of the Strait of Hormuz, how AIS and the dark/shadow fleet work, the conflict context, India's heavy dependence on the strait for oil, LNG and LPG, India's energy-security response, and the wider issue of maritime chokepoints — all mapped to the UPSC syllabus.

The Finance Ministry has granted in-principle approval for the construction of Maitri II, India's newest research station in eastern Antarctica, marking a significant step in upgrading the country's polar research infrastructure. This decision, announced on October 4, 2025, comes as the existing Maitri station, operational since 1989, has outlived its original design life and requires replacement to support ongoing scientific expeditions amid growing global interest in Antarctic studies for climate insights and resource exploration.

US President Donald Trump's recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly, where he labeled climate change predictions as the "greatest con job" and claimed they were made by "stupid people" costing fortunes, has sparked renewed scrutiny on the reliability of climate models. These tools are essential for forecasting climate impacts, including in India where erratic monsoons, heatwaves, and sea-level rise threaten agriculture, water security, and coastal communities, urging a deeper look into their workings and accuracy to inform policy and adaptation strategies.

On October 2, 2025, during a Vijayadashami event in Bhuj, Gujarat, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan against any aggression in the Sir Creek region, stating that the "road to Karachi goes through Sir Creek" and any misadventure could change "history and geography." This statement comes amid reports of Pakistan's military buildup in the area, escalating tensions following Operation Sindoor in May 2025, where Pakistan attempted drone attacks on Indian sites, including Sir Creek, highlighting the ongoing unresolved border issue.