Foreign Policies affecting India & Diaspora

Afghanistan's Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi in October 2025 for an eight-day stay, the highest-level interaction since the Taliban seized power in 2021. This led to India's announcement to fully re-establish its embassy in Kabul, upgrading from a limited technical mission, while still withholding formal recognition of the Taliban regime. The visit underscores India's careful balancing of humanitarian, economic, and security interests in the region amid shifting global dynamics.

China has expanded its export controls on rare earth elements and technologies, adding five more elements to its restricted list effective October 9, 2025, amid escalating US-China trade tensions. This move has prompted US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to call for support from allies like India against China's actions, potentially accelerating stalled India-US trade negotiations as Indian officials visit Washington this week to address the 50% tariffs imposed on Indian exports due to Russian oil imports, highlighting shared concerns over critical minerals supply chains.

The Trump administration's 50% tariffs imposed in August 2025 led to a 12% sharp decline in India's merchandise exports to the US in September, but overall exports grew 6.74% to $36.38 billion, mainly driven by growth to China and UAE, while a surge in gold, silver, and fertilizer imports pushed the trade deficit to a one-year high of $31.15 billion, highlighting global trade challenges and India's diversification strategy.

US President Donald Trump has hinted at sending long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine as a way to pressure Russia into ending the war, stating that if the conflict does not settle soon, the US might provide these offensive weapons capable of reaching deep into Russian territory, including Moscow, from Ukrainian positions. This comes amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and discussions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with Russia warning that such a move would escalate the conflict significantly.

Intense border clashes broke out between Pakistani security forces and Afghan Taliban along the Durand Line in October 2025, starting with Pakistani strikes inside Afghanistan on October 9 and leading to heavy fighting on October 11-12, with significant casualties on both sides, border closures, and a temporary 48-hour ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Saudi Arabia starting October 15, highlighting deep-rooted mutual suspicions and strategic divergences that threaten regional stability.

A recent modelling study published in the journal Human Reproduction predicts a 10.5% decline in India's twinning rate by 2100 due to falling fertility rates, yet the country will still account for the world's largest share of twin births (23.4%) owing to its massive population size. This has significant public health and demographic implications, as twins face higher mortality risks, and experts are calling for a national twin registry to study environmental factors like pollution alongside genetics, drawing parallels from China's approach to twin research.

China has ramped up its crude oil stockpiling, adding nearly 160 million barrels worth over $10 billion to its reserves in the first nine months of 2025, driven by low global prices and expanding storage capacity. This move, amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and risks of tighter sanctions on key suppliers like Russia and Iran, highlights Beijing's focus on energy security, influencing global oil markets by absorbing excess supply and keeping prices stable.

India and Canada have taken significant steps to restore their strained bilateral relations through high-level talks between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand in New Delhi. The discussions resulted in a joint statement outlining measures to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, AI, and critical minerals, signaling a reset after tensions over the 2023 killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar and subsequent diplomatic expulsions. This move comes amid global economic uncertainty and aims to rebuild trust for mutual benefit.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced at the India Mobile Congress 2025 that India's indigenous 4G technology stack is now ready for export, showcasing the country's telecom self-reliance. This move aims to provide an alternative to China's Digital Silk Road expansion in developing nations, where India has joined the elite group of five countries (Denmark, Sweden, South Korea, China, and India) that have developed their own 4G stack.

India has taken a major step to normalize relations with the Taliban government in Afghanistan by upgrading its technical mission in Kabul to a full embassy after four years, following a key meeting between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in New Delhi. This move comes amid shifting regional dynamics, including tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, and aims to boost cooperation on security, trade, and humanitarian aid while addressing shared concerns like terrorism.

On October 9, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his proposed peace plan for Gaza, marking a potential breakthrough after two years of devastating conflict. Israel's Cabinet approved the deal early on October 10, enabling an immediate ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages, and a phased troop withdrawal, with international monitoring including US troops. This development, brokered through indirect talks in Egypt, has been hailed globally, including by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as a step toward ending the war that began on October 7, 2023, and restoring humanitarian access to Gaza.

On October 9, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Mumbai during Starmer's first official visit to India since assuming office in July. The meeting focused on accelerating the implementation of the recently signed Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), enhancing defense and security collaborations, and expanding educational and cultural links, amid global challenges like geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, highlighting the partnership's role in fostering stability.