El Niño Current Affairs for UPSC

The Ministry of Power is expected to issue an advisory to power-sector stakeholders amid El Niño uncertainty, especially because deficient rainfall and erratic weather can affect hydropower, wind generation, thermal-plant water availability, transmission assets and peak electricity demand. The issue is important for UPSC because it links climate variability, energy security, grid resilience, renewable integration, coal dependence and India’s power-sector planning.

Direct-seeded rice is gaining attention among farmers as an alternative to conventional transplanted paddy because it can reduce water and labour use at a time when El Niño conditions are expected to affect the southwest monsoon. The shift is being supported by new herbicide-tolerant rice varieties, but it also raises concerns over weed control, herbicide stewardship, soil suitability, groundwater stress and the long-term sustainability of India’s paddy economy. The uploaded newspaper report highlights this trend from the perspective of farmers facing water and labour shortages. (Indian Express, PIB / IMD)

India’s southwest monsoon has shown weak progress over western India, especially Maharashtra, amid developing El Niño conditions and a large early-season rainfall deficit. IMD’s latest monsoon outlook, rainfall data and extended-range forecasts point to weak cross-equatorial flow, below-normal rainfall risk, heatwave conditions in parts of Maharashtra, and possible implications for kharif sowing, food inflation, water security and disaster preparedness.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole bulletin, has confirmed that El Niño conditions have emerged over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen through the southwest monsoon season. The announcement follows a similar confirmation by the US NOAA and accompanies IMD's revised 2026 monsoon forecast of 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" season. This article explains El Niño, the ENSO cycle, the Niño 3.4 index and the Indian Ocean Dipole, shows how the Walker Circulation links Pacific warming to a weaker Indian monsoon, and assesses what a deficient monsoon means for agriculture, food prices and heatwaves in India.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026 by ICIMOD has warned that several parts of the HKH region may face below-normal monsoon rainfall, but the risk of climate hazards such as flash floods, landslides, droughts, heat stress and glacial lake outburst floods remains high. The issue is important for UPSC because it links Himalayan ecology, monsoon variability, El Niño, cryosphere change, disaster management, water security and India’s climate adaptation strategy.

Western and Central Europe are in the grip of an extraordinary May heatwave, with the UK and France recording their highest-ever May temperatures and parts of Spain crossing 38°C — temperatures 10 to 15°C above seasonal norms. Driven by a "heat dome" trapping warm air, the event coincides with the rapid emergence of an El Niño phase in the equatorial Pacific, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged as a key reason for cutting its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" category. This article explains the science of heat domes, ENSO, Walker Circulation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, climate whiplash, IMD's heatwave criteria, and what a strong El Niño could mean for India's agriculture, inflation, and food security.