Southwest Monsoon Current Affairs for UPSC

WMO forecasts an exceptionally strong El Niño near the end of 2026, with impacts extending into 2027. The warning highlights Pacific warming, India’s rainfall risks and the need to interpret climate forecasts carefully.

Lower fertiliser sales during April–September 2026 have raised concerns about monsoon-related farm stress. The figures highlight how rainfall affects input demand, while production, imports, stocks and subsidy policy must be assessed separately.

India received near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall during July 2026 after an exceptionally dry June. This reduced, but did not eliminate, the accumulated southwest monsoon rainfall deficit. The recovery was driven by Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems, favourable positioning of the monsoon trough and strong moisture-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea. However, rainfall remained highly uneven, alternating between intense wet spells and prolonged dry periods. The development is important for Kharif agriculture, water security, disaster management and assessment of the strengthening El Niño.

India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils, nearly 6 million tonnes of pulses and 1.1 million tonnes of raw cotton in 2025-26, and a strengthening El Niño with a weak southwest monsoon now threatens to push these agricultural imports even higher in the current year. Rainfall in June 2026 was 38% below normal and kharif sowing of pulses, oilseeds and cotton has fallen sharply. This article explains what El Niño is, how it affects the Indian monsoon and kharif-rabi crops, why India depends on imports of edible oils, pulses and cotton, the cushioning factors like record foodgrain stocks, the government's likely policy response, and the long-term missions to cut import dependence — with UPSC Prelims facts, MCQs and Mains practice questions.

The Reserve Bank of India's June 2026 Bulletin, in its "State of the Economy" article, has cautioned that an adverse south-west monsoon could weigh on India's growth and inflation outlook. The warning comes as nationwide cumulative rainfall has fallen to 42% below the Long Period Average as on 21 June, even as heavy rain triggers landslides in Meghalaya and floods in Assam. The same bulletin disclosed that the RBI net sold $8.94 billion in April to defend a record-low rupee. This article explains the southwest monsoon's mechanism, the El Niño link, how a weak monsoon transmits into food inflation and slower growth, the RBI's forex defence and monetary-policy response, and the buffers that cushion India this year.

India’s southwest monsoon has shown weak progress over western India, especially Maharashtra, amid developing El Niño conditions and a large early-season rainfall deficit. IMD’s latest monsoon outlook, rainfall data and extended-range forecasts point to weak cross-equatorial flow, below-normal rainfall risk, heatwave conditions in parts of Maharashtra, and possible implications for kharif sowing, food inflation, water security and disaster preparedness.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole bulletin, has confirmed that El Niño conditions have emerged over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen through the southwest monsoon season. The announcement follows a similar confirmation by the US NOAA and accompanies IMD's revised 2026 monsoon forecast of 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" season. This article explains El Niño, the ENSO cycle, the Niño 3.4 index and the Indian Ocean Dipole, shows how the Walker Circulation links Pacific warming to a weaker Indian monsoon, and assesses what a deficient monsoon means for agriculture, food prices and heatwaves in India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its second-stage long-range forecast on 29 May 2026, lowered its 2026 Southwest Monsoon estimate to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), pushing the season into the "below normal" category amid a developing El Niño. This article explains the monsoon mechanism, the meaning of LPA and IMD's rainfall categories, how El Niño (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) shape Indian rainfall, the impact on agriculture and inflation, and why ample reservoirs and foodgrain buffers offer a silver lining.