ENSO Current Affairs for UPSC

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole bulletin, has confirmed that El Niño conditions have emerged over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to strengthen through the southwest monsoon season. The announcement follows a similar confirmation by the US NOAA and accompanies IMD's revised 2026 monsoon forecast of 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" season. This article explains El Niño, the ENSO cycle, the Niño 3.4 index and the Indian Ocean Dipole, shows how the Walker Circulation links Pacific warming to a weaker Indian monsoon, and assesses what a deficient monsoon means for agriculture, food prices and heatwaves in India.

Western and Central Europe are in the grip of an extraordinary May heatwave, with the UK and France recording their highest-ever May temperatures and parts of Spain crossing 38°C — temperatures 10 to 15°C above seasonal norms. Driven by a "heat dome" trapping warm air, the event coincides with the rapid emergence of an El Niño phase in the equatorial Pacific, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged as a key reason for cutting its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" category. This article explains the science of heat domes, ENSO, Walker Circulation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, climate whiplash, IMD's heatwave criteria, and what a strong El Niño could mean for India's agriculture, inflation, and food security.