July Monsoon Revival Explained: Why Near-Normal Rain Did Not Erase India’s Deficit

• Weak first month: June, the opening month of the southwest monsoon season, was exceptionally dry. The country received only around three-fifths of its normal June rainfall, making it the fifth-driest June since nationwide records began in 1901.

• Rapid July recovery: Several rain-bearing systems developed during July. Their westward movement across India produced widespread rainfall over central, western and northwestern regions, substantially reducing the accumulated deficit.

• Uneven distribution: The recovery did not occur through steady daily rainfall. Instead, intense wet spells were interrupted by dry or subdued periods. Some districts faced floods and landslides, while others continued to experience inadequate rainfall.

• End-month position: July as a whole ended marginally wetter than its national average, but the large deficit inherited from June ensured that cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season remained below normal.

• Comparison with normal rainfall: IMD compares actual rainfall over a specified period with the Long Period Average, or LPA, for the same area and period.

• Departure formula: Rainfall departure is broadly calculated as:

• Rainfall departure=

Normal rainfall Actual rainfall − Normal rainfall ​

• ×100

• A negative result indicates below-normal rainfall, while a positive result indicates above-normal rainfall.

• Operational categories: For districts, states and meteorological subdivisions, IMD classifies rainfall departures of −19% to +19% as normal, −20% to −59% as deficient and −60% to −99% as large deficient. Excess rainfall is +20% to +59%, while large excess is +60% or more.

• Different national classification: In long-range forecasts for India as a whole, categories are defined differently. Seasonal rainfall of 90–110% of LPA is generally described as normal, while rainfall below 90% of LPA is below normal.

• Cumulative calculation: Seasonal rainfall is calculated from June 1 onwards. A month with near-normal rainfall adds approximately the expected amount but does not automatically compensate for rainfall that was missing during an earlier month.

• Requirement of substantial excess: To erase a large June shortfall, July would have needed rainfall significantly above its own normal—not merely normal or marginally above normal.

• Different monthly weights: July normally contributes a larger share of seasonal rainfall than June. Therefore, a good July can substantially improve the seasonal position, but the magnitude and distribution of the rain remain important.

• Simple illustration: Suppose an area normally receives 100 units in June and 150 units in July. If it receives only 60 units in June but the full 150 units in July, its two-month total is still 40 units below normal. Normal rainfall in the second month stops the deficit from growing; it does not necessarily remove the earlier shortfall.

• Weak rain-bearing systems: The newspaper report identifies the absence of a significant low-pressure system as an important reason. Monsoon lows and depressions are principal rain-bearing systems during the southwest monsoon and often transport rain westwards from the Bay of Bengal.

• Delayed advance: Monsoon progress remained slow over parts of central, western and northern India. The Arabian Sea branch was particularly sluggish over some regions, delaying the arrival of sustained rainfall.

• Intraseasonal suppression: The monsoon naturally oscillates between favourable and unfavourable phases over periods of days and weeks. When cloud and convection remain concentrated away from the Indian landmass, rainfall over large areas becomes subdued.

• Early-stage El Niño: El Niño developed during June, although its full influence was expected to become more pronounced later in the season. Therefore, the poor June performance cannot be attributed exclusively to El Niño.

• Lower atmospheric pressure: A low-pressure area is a region where surface pressure is lower than in the surrounding areas. In the Northern Hemisphere, winds tend to circulate anticlockwise around it.

• Convergence and uplift: Air flows towards the low-pressure centre and converges. Since the air cannot accumulate indefinitely near the surface, it rises.

• Cloud formation: Rising moist air expands and cools. Water vapour condenses into cloud droplets, releasing latent heat and supporting further convection and rainfall.

• Monsoon lows: Low-pressure areas developing over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon are called monsoon lows. They frequently travel westwards or west-northwestwards across India, producing rain along and around their path.

• Intensity: A depression is a more organised and intense low-pressure system with a well-defined cyclonic circulation.

• Wind speed: IMD describes monsoon depressions as systems with circulation wind speeds broadly between 17 and 33 knots.

• Rain-bearing role: Monsoon lows and depressions are among the most important systems producing rainfall over central India, the Indo-Gangetic region and the west coast.

• Limited cyclone formation: Monsoon depressions usually do not intensify into powerful tropical cyclones during July and August because strong vertical wind shear disrupts the vertical organisation required for cyclogenesis.

• Elongated low pressure: The monsoon trough is an elongated belt of low pressure extending broadly from the heat low over Pakistan and northwest India towards the head of the Bay of Bengal.

• Semi-permanent feature: It is a major component of the southwest monsoon circulation but does not remain fixed in one position.

• Movement of systems: Low-pressure areas and depressions frequently form on or move along this trough. Its position helps determine where the heaviest rainfall will occur.

• July role: During the active July spells, the position of the trough supported rainfall over central and western India, while its shifts contributed to subsequent dry or break periods.

• Active monsoon spell: An active phase is a period during which rainfall over the monsoon core zone is substantially above normal and rain-bearing systems remain favourable.

• Southward trough movement: When the monsoon trough lies near or south of its normal position, widespread rainfall is generally enhanced over central and peninsular India.

• Break monsoon spell: A break is a period of sharply reduced rainfall over large parts of the monsoon core region. It does not mean that rainfall stops across the entire country.

• Northward trough movement: When the trough shifts towards the Himalayan foothills, rainfall decreases over central India but can become intense over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam and adjoining Himalayan or northeastern regions.

• Intraseasonal variability: These alternating active and break phases are part of the natural sub-seasonal behaviour of the Indian monsoon. IITM identifies them using rainfall anomalies over the monsoon core zone.

• System formation: A well-marked low-pressure area developed over the northwest Bay of Bengal in early July and intensified into the season’s first depression near the Odisha–West Bengal coast.

• Westward movement: The system moved inland across Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and central India. Such westward-moving systems distribute Bay of Bengal moisture over a large part of the country.

• Slow movement: When a system moves slowly, the same region may remain under moisture convergence for a prolonged period, leading to continuous heavy rainfall and possible flooding.

• Subsequent systems: Additional low-pressure formations and cyclonic circulations later in the month revived rainfall after intervening dry spells, creating the observed alternation between wet and dry phases.

• Cross-equatorial flow: During the southwest monsoon, strong winds cross the equator and enter the Arabian Sea. The Somali or low-level jet transports large quantities of moisture towards India’s west coast.

• Interaction with Bay systems: A low-pressure system over central India strengthens the pressure gradient and can draw more moisture from the Arabian Sea. This creates a large moisture corridor extending from the west coast to the Bay of Bengal.

• Orographic rainfall: Moist winds are forced to rise when they encounter the Western Ghats. Rising air cools and condenses, causing heavy rain on the windward slopes of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala.

• Offshore trough: A shallow low-pressure trough often forms parallel to the west coast between Kerala and Gujarat. It can further strengthen coastal rainfall.

• July extremes: The combination of a Bay depression, strong Arabian Sea westerlies and the Western Ghats contributed to exceptionally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat.

• Madden–Julian Oscillation: The Madden–Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is an eastward-moving zone of enhanced and suppressed tropical cloud and rainfall activity. When its enhanced phase is favourably positioned over the Indian Ocean, monsoon convection can strengthen; an unfavourable phase can suppress it.

• Monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: The monsoon also has a northward-propagating cloud and rainfall pattern with a timescale of several weeks. Its passage helps create alternating active and break phases.

• El Niño–Southern Oscillation: El Niño refers to unusually warm sea-surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific accompanied by changes in atmospheric circulation. El Niño years are statistically associated with a higher probability of weak Indian monsoon rainfall, but the relationship is not automatic.

• Indian Ocean Dipole: The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, measures the difference in sea-surface temperature between the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can sometimes support Indian monsoon rainfall and partly offset adverse Pacific conditions.

• 2026 conditions: IMD reported a moderate El Niño that was likely to strengthen, while IOD conditions were neutral. Some international models suggested a possible positive IOD later in the season, but this remained a forecast rather than a confirmed development.

• Spatial averaging: All-India rainfall combines data from a very large and climatically diverse territory. Excess rainfall in one region can statistically offset severe deficiency elsewhere.

• Temporal averaging: A monthly total does not show whether rain was spread across many days or concentrated in a few extreme events.

• Agricultural relevance: Crops often need rain at specific stages—sowing, germination, transplantation, flowering and grain formation. Heavy rainfall on a few days cannot fully compensate for prolonged dry spells between those stages.

• Hydrological relevance: Moderate rain spread across several days can recharge soil and groundwater more effectively than an intense downpour that rapidly becomes surface runoff.

• Disaster paradox: The same month can therefore produce agricultural drought in one district, floods in another and a “normal” national rainfall statistic.

• Exceptional local concentration: Umergam in Gujarat’s Valsad district received more than one metre of rain within 24 hours, making it one of India’s most extreme recorded daily rainfall events.

• Multiple contributing systems: Such an event can occur when a large cyclonic circulation, a favourable monsoon trough, strong Arabian Sea moisture flow and local convergence persist over the same area.

• Not automatically a cloudburst: A very large 24-hour total should not automatically be labelled a cloudburst. IMD generally uses “cloudburst” for exceptionally intense rainfall over a very short period and a small area; daily accumulation alone does not establish that classification.

• Risk implications: Extreme rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, destabilise slopes, damage roads and railways, erode soil and create flash-flood conditions even when the wider region had previously faced a rainfall deficit.

• Warmer atmosphere: A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. The Clausius–Clapeyron relationship indicates an increase of roughly 7% in moisture-holding capacity for every 1°C of warming.

• Heavier rainfall potential: Greater atmospheric moisture increases the potential intensity of heavy rainfall when favourable circulation and uplift are present. IMD’s monsoon assessment therefore expects heavy rainfall events to rise in a warming climate.

• Changing rainfall character: The Ministry of Earth Sciences’ assessment records a decline in mean monsoon precipitation since the mid-twentieth century alongside increases in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Thus, lower or uncertain seasonal rainfall can coexist with more intense short-duration downpours.

• Attribution caution: Climate change increases the probability or intensity of certain extremes, but a scientific event-attribution study is needed before the precise contribution of climate change to a particular July rainfall event can be quantified.

• Humanised landscapes: Urbanisation, wetland loss, hill cutting, deforestation and concretisation do not necessarily create every rainstorm, but they increase runoff, reduce natural drainage and amplify the damage caused by heavy rain.

• Delayed farm operations: Weak June rainfall delayed sowing and transplantation in several rain-fed areas.

• Recovery in July: Improved soil moisture allowed farmers to accelerate sowing, particularly after the monsoon covered the entire country. Government reviews nevertheless continued to identify rainfall-sensitive districts requiring close monitoring.

• Crop-specific vulnerability: Paddy requires adequate water for nursery preparation and transplantation. Pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals are more drought tolerant than paddy but can still suffer if rainfall is delayed during germination or absent during flowering.

• Excess-rain damage: Very heavy rain can waterlog fields, wash away seeds and fertilisers, encourage fungal disease and cause lodging of crops.

• Distribution over totals: For agricultural output, the number of rainy days and the length of intervening dry spells can be as important as the total seasonal rainfall.

• Water security: Monsoon rainfall replenishes reservoirs, rivers, groundwater and village water bodies, influencing drinking-water availability during the following dry season.

• Energy: Rainfall affects hydropower generation and agricultural electricity demand. Weak rain can increase groundwater pumping and power consumption.

• Inflation: Crop losses can increase food prices, especially for vegetables, pulses, cereals and oilseeds.

• Rural demand: Farm income affects expenditure on consumer goods, transport, housing and services, connecting monsoon performance with the wider economy.

• Disaster management: Concentrated rainfall increases the probability of urban floods, landslides, flash floods, dam-management emergencies and damage to transport infrastructure.

• August outlook: IMD expects countrywide August rainfall to be below normal, defined in the forecast as less than 94% of the month’s LPA.

• August–September outlook: Rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season is also likely to remain below normal over the country as a whole.

• Spatial exceptions: Some parts of peninsular, central, northwestern, eastern and northeastern India may still receive normal or above-normal rain. A national below-normal forecast does not imply uniform deficiency everywhere.

• Ocean conditions: Moderate El Niño conditions were expected to strengthen. Neutral IOD conditions were likely to continue under IMD’s model, though some international centres indicated the possibility of a positive IOD during September.

• Forecast uncertainty: Seasonal outlooks are probabilistic. The actual outcome will also depend on the formation of Bay of Bengal systems, monsoon-trough position, MJO phase and other intraseasonal processes.

• Monitor rainfall distribution: Policy decisions should move beyond the all-India seasonal total and track district-level rainfall distribution, rainy days, dry-spell duration, soil moisture and reservoir inflows.

• Strengthen impact-based warnings: IMD’s impact-based forecasting should identify not merely how much rain may fall but its likely effects on settlements, farms, roads, railways, hillsides and river basins.

• Expand observation networks: More Doppler weather radars, automatic weather stations, rain gauges and soil-moisture observations are needed, especially in mountains, coastal regions and rapidly expanding cities.

• Improve last-mile communication: Common Alerting Protocol messages, local-language alerts, community radio, mobile applications and Panchayat-level forecasts should be integrated with district disaster-management systems.

• Adopt crop contingency plans: States should maintain reserves of short-duration and drought-tolerant seeds, adjust sowing calendars and issue location-specific advisories through Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa.

• Protect rain-fed farmers: Crop-insurance assessment, credit restructuring, input support and employment programmes should respond rapidly when prolonged dry spells or floods damage crops.

• Strengthen water management: Watershed restoration, farm ponds, aquifer recharge, micro-irrigation and scientific reservoir-operation rules can help store intense rainfall for use during later dry spells.

• Build climate-resilient cities: Urban wetlands, floodplains and natural drainage channels should be protected. Storm-water systems must be designed for higher rainfall intensities rather than relying only on historical averages.

• Reduce landslide risks: Hill cutting, construction and drainage modifications should follow carrying-capacity assessments, landslide-hazard zonation and slope-stability standards.

• Improve monsoon research: Better modelling of low-pressure systems, MJO, active-break cycles, land–atmosphere interaction, aerosols and ocean conditions is essential for more reliable sub-seasonal forecasts.

• Combine adaptation with mitigation: India must strengthen resilience to present rainfall variability while reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that intensify long-term climate risks.