Indian Monsoon 2026 Current Affairs for UPSC

India received near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall during July 2026 after an exceptionally dry June. This reduced, but did not eliminate, the accumulated southwest monsoon rainfall deficit. The recovery was driven by Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems, favourable positioning of the monsoon trough and strong moisture-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea. However, rainfall remained highly uneven, alternating between intense wet spells and prolonged dry periods. The development is important for Kharif agriculture, water security, disaster management and assessment of the strengthening El Niño.

Western and Central Europe are in the grip of an extraordinary May heatwave, with the UK and France recording their highest-ever May temperatures and parts of Spain crossing 38°C — temperatures 10 to 15°C above seasonal norms. Driven by a "heat dome" trapping warm air, the event coincides with the rapid emergence of an El Niño phase in the equatorial Pacific, which the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged as a key reason for cutting its 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average — a "below normal" category. This article explains the science of heat domes, ENSO, Walker Circulation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, climate whiplash, IMD's heatwave criteria, and what a strong El Niño could mean for India's agriculture, inflation, and food security.